New Zealand Society – changing to a new paradigm

Societies change both as the population changes and the environment changes. New Zealand is no more immune to this than any other country. Already my grandparents would not recognise the New Zealand of 2017.

But most of this change has been incremental. Some of the increments have been large and fast, e.g. the introduction and growth of digital technology. But they have been largely accepted by the population at large, albeit with some grumbling and confusion around the edges, because of the benefits and new opportunities they have brought.

But we are now approaching what could turn out to be a seismic shift in our society and one that could potentially trigger a period of disruption. Disruptive activity is not new to politics as anyone involved in Trade Union activities in the 50s could soon attest. However, that was largely organised mass action. One of the unfortunate lessons taught by terrorist attacks recently has been the demonstration of the disruptive power that can be exercised by individuals. That philosophy can, with frightening ease and power, be transferred to the “misuse” of the internet particularly.

I think the shift will be seismic in part because we have really run out of ideas for incrementally fixing up and improving the current system – a system which has been in place for a good century. Further fix-ups will probably prove to be increasingly unsatisfactory and ineffective, especially to those who feel neglected and forgotten by the current system, or who feel un-necessarily constrained in developing their lives.

Politics is a mirror of society and there has been much talk in the 2017 election campaign about a “mood for change”. Some might interpret that as just a change from National to Labour but I think there is more going on than that.

Fortuitously really, Jacinda Ardern is seen as the “standard bearer” for change and I think that if she does not win the 2017 election there may well be a pent-up landslide change in her favour in the following election (I think her position as Labour Leader is secure no matter what the 2017 outcome). It is very noticeable that her campaign strategy has focused on youth and the need to get them engaged in the political system. It is clear from the polls that young people hold very different political views from their parents’ generation and could be the key to winning or losing this and future elections. But they seem very reluctant to engage in the present election process, which may be as much a reflection on the nature of the process than anything else. It is laughable really that election votes will be cast by making marks on a piece of paper instead of through the electronic gateways now available

Bill English has turned out to be a surprisingly likeable, articulate and thoughtful National leader, and this is having a positive impact on National’s campaign and poll results. But I suspect he knows very well that if National squeaks in it will likely be for one term only and then change will come. His focus is still very much on the traditional National support base which can be relied on to turn out in large numbers. I doubt that National will be badly hurt by the current furore over the broken jet fuel pipeline as this is arguably a testament to neglect by the previous Labour Government just as much as by the present national Government. And the matter is muddied anyway by the argument about how far Governments should have involved themselves in what is essentially a private sector project.

What is going on here is the start of a generational shift – a shift from a generation that is dominated by the baby boomers, to a new generation that lives and operates in a largely digital world that has few frontiers and thrives on instant communication. The experiences of the generations are entirely different because technology and international society have both changed hugely over the past several decades. Because of this, I think the generations think differently and I suspect have quite different views on the shape of the future. They also communicate differently and communication between the generations is limited and very probably ineffective.

In a way, I think Jacinda Ardern sits uncomfortably on the interface between these two worlds and could well eventually become a casualty herself. Ardern sees herself as the representative of the younger generation and an agent for change, but in reality, Labour (and thus her) have policies which are as much anchored in the views of the ruling generation and in the past as those of National.

The same mood for change can be seen all over the world – it can be seen in the decision on Brexit, the results of European elections and even the election of Donald Trump. Perhaps Trump’s lasting contribution will be his apparent rejection of the “one truth” paradigm in favour of one where the truth is whatever you decide you would like it to be. In the virtual worlds of the future, this may be more the case than we would like to think.

But the new paradigm had yet to take firm shape. It seems likely to reject conventional economic wisdom and the dominance of market philosophies in most economies. But this does not mean an automatic change to the socialist policies of the past, many of which have failed badly, the most catastrophic example being the old USSR. For all his recent sins, I think Tony Blair in the UK has been one of the few politicians to sense the coming new wave, with his search for a “third way” for politics to operate.

Initially I think the new paradigm is likely to involve some elements of environmentalism, particularly those that devalue the importance of humans compared with other species and seek to protect the status quo, together with those elements of socialism that favour the transfer of wealth from the developed to the less developed parts of the world and to groups seen as disadvantaged.  However, these thoughts borrow largely from the past and are suspect for that reason. I think the future could have a shape which takes us quite by surprise.

With the growth of social media, individuals are likely to become less socially engaged with other people, other than in the form of electronic identities, and this will give a frightening amount of power to groups at the centre who wish to influence the form and direction of government. The counter to this will be the power able to be exercised by individuals through the internet. It will be fascinating to see how this tension plays out.

In fact, you could scare yourself witless imagining what the future system might look like, the irony is that it may well have a shape that none of us predicts, either for better or for worse.

So stand by for change whatever form it might have.

By Bas Walker

This is another of Bas Walker’s posts on GrownUps.  Please look out for his articles, containing his Beachside Ponderings.