Although it was always a possibility, it is still a surprise to see that Donald Trump has not only won the US Presidency but has done so by a handsome margin. There is no doubt that the American electorate has spoken big time. What happens from here on in is anyone’s guess although it is bound to provide ammunition for lots of future articles. I am sure we are in for a few surprises.
The aspect that is a little frightening is that the Republicans now control both the Congress and the Senate as well as the Presidency, so that if they can all agree there is nothing they can’t do. On the other hand the combined houses could provide an interesting brake on Presidential ambitions, even though they are all from the same party.
It is far too soon to speculate on the impact of this on New Zealand and on other countries, although there are some things that can be said with reasonable certainty.
- I think the TPP agreement on trade is now dead in the water, and it was looking pretty sick anyway
- The US looks set to become more isolationist in its outlook looking at both trade and immigration, but you can only speculate on the impact of this on the rest of the world. Other large countries with international ambitions e.g. China, will be looking on with great interest
- There is something seriously deficient in the way that political polls are done – what has happened in the US is mirrored by what happened on the Brexit vote in the UK. The pollsters got it badly wrong.
Politicians all over the world are putting a cautious but brave face on what has happened – the catch phrases seems to be “life will go on” and “the sun will continue to rise” and so on. But I doubt if it will be that simple.
There are heaps of questions to be answered but some of the interesting early questions are:
- What will Trump do with the administration in Washington – will there be wholesale changes, will there be a complete cleanout, or will it be closer to business as usual than most people think?
- Will he do the things he said he would do (e.g. the famous wall on the Mexican border). If he doesn’t then I think there is going to be a very angry part of the electorate that will not react well.
- What are the implications of what appears to be a very friendly relationship between Putin in Russia and Trump. If there is any advantage in this for Putin, you can guarantee he will grab it and that could have all kinds of implications.
- How “hands off” will he be in his relationship with other countries and if this creates a power vacuum how will it be filled?
- How secure are people in the US who are residents but not citizens?
We are now entering the transitional period and Trump will not take over until late January. I think what happens during that period, and that includes for examples the conversations he has with President Obama, will start to give us some clues about what happens further down the track.
Gosh, if there was ever a “watch this space” situation this has got to be it.
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This is another of Bas Walker’s posts on GrownUps. Please look out for his articles, containing his Beachside Ponderings.
Dodgeit - 7 years ago
I read some where that a notable US personage said that if Trump wins he will be the last President of the USA. At the time I thought how could that be ? I guess we will have to wait and see, as we have all along.