Is this the demise of Labour given the latest disastrous poll?

OPINION: Even given Labours’ generally poor polling performance 24% is a new low and has certainly prompted Andrew Little to talk openly about a possible resignation.  It seems he has been talked out of that by colleagues, and I guess at least part of the reasoning may be that if Labour loses the election the existing Leader will be dog tucker and that will be the time to make a change.

Having Little as Leader has certainly been a factor in achieving this new low. Like many others, I thought his appointment was a mistake and would do Labour not much good. He seems honest and capable enough but completely lacks charisma – certainly when appearing on TV – and has had trouble shaking off his Trade Union background. Personally, I would have been more inclined to give Grant Robertson a go. He has a sharp mind and is a good debater and would be causing Bill English all sorts of problems at present if he was running the Labour show. For me, the jury is still out on Jacinda Ahern. She may be an effective deputy but to me lacks the mana to be an effective leader.

To get back to the original questions, is 24% a fatal opinion poll result? I think the answer has to be no. Even the Nat’s have been down in those regions and have recovered. More importantly, I think most people agree that NZ politics needs an effective left leaning opposition and would be extremely unhappy about having either the Greens or Winston in that position on any kind of permanent basis. In the case of the Greens, they have some interesting policies but too many of their positions are extreme and seen as unacceptably risky if not downright unacceptable to most voters. I would be most surprised to see the Greens become the official opposition, at least in my lifetime.

Winston will always have his devotees but his politics are very one dimensional and he must be nearing the end of the political road anyway.

Even given Labour’s poor results, the election still hangs in the balance if you believe the polls. Proportional representation may have benefits in allowing minority views to find a stage but, my word, it makes it tough to form a Government. At this stage, I would not be happy to predict any particular result although an I doubt we will have a Hung Parliament. The NZ voters are very pragmatic and think one way or another they will want a result which keeps the government going.

One of the interesting differences between NZ and the Europeans, in particular, is that we have not seen the rise of the Right in polls and elections. This is mainly because refugees immigration is not the issue here it has been in Europe and I think NZ politics is traditionally more middle of the road and stable anyway.

And what of Bill English is all of this? As I have said before his lack of charisma is down at Andrew Little levels, but he has the enormous advantage of being in government and able to make policy changes and  decisions which ward off the opposition to some extent. But he is blatantly straightforward, to the point which makes you wince at times. The contrast with John Key could not be starker. And under his leadership there has been a real reluctance to get to grip with solutions in difficult policy areas such as the environment (particularly water) quality and housing. He is very lucky to have such a lack lustre opposition.

So really it is still largely business as usual and we are not really any closer than we were before at guessing possible election outcomes.  But certainly, it is far too soon to predict the demise of Labour.

By Bas Walker

This is another of Bas Walker’s posts on GrownUps.  Please look out for his articles, containing his Beachside Ponderings.