Opinion – John Key’s resignation –  is this a game changer?

John Key’s resignation has taken everyone by surprise, but he must be hugely respected for   going out at the top of his game and not hanging on for the sake of it.  Photos taken today of Key and compared with photos when he first entered Parliament give some hint of the personal toll that the Prime Ministership has taken on him.  He will certainly go down as one our best Prime Ministers, and if he wants it, a Knighthood may well be a distinct possibility in the New Year’s Honours list.

I also like his timing.  There is plenty of time to run until the next Election and this will give his successor time to make his or her mark.

At this stage the National Party seems to be taking it all in their stride –there are certainly no signs of panic in the ranks.  But in private I would guess that there is some turmoil going on in the caucus.

John Key has already stated that he sees his replacement being Bill English.  It will be interesting to find out what the caucus as a whole thinks of that.  Personally I think selecting Bill English would be a mistake.  He has been and still is an excellent Finance Minister and an able Deputy Prime Minister.  But he lacks charisma and is very conservative in his views.  Remember too that he lead National to a big Election loss some 10 or so years ago.   I think with Bill English in charge the next Election could be a very close thing for National, if not a loss.

There is short line of maybe 3 or 4 serious contenders standing behind Bill English in the National Caucus.  So there are choices available.

I think that a forward looking caucus would see this as a chance to refresh the National “brand” and bring in fresh faces for the top and deputy jobs.    If good choices are made, this could set up National for an almost unprecedented  4^th term in government on the trot.  The crucial political judgement for caucus to make, I think, is whether to take a serious tilt at that 4^th term or in a sense give the next one away and come back with a new line-up after that.

Even with a new Leader National has a lot going for it – the economy is in good shape, the Government has built up some real skills in disaster management, and any mistakes they have made do not seem to have hurt them in the polls.  I think too they are lucky to have Andrew Little as the Leader of the Labour Party because he lacks charisma as much as Bill English, and I think has made a tactical error in aligning Labour so closely with the Greens.

Once a new Leader and thus Prime Minister has been elected, it will be fascinating to see what the country thinks, based on public polling.  If nothing else the next set of polls should tell us how important the “Key factor” has been in sustaining high poll results for National.

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This is another of Bas Walker’s posts on GrownUps.  Please look out for his articles, containing his Beachside Ponderings.