In the end John Key got what he wanted and basically the caucus voted for continuity and natural progression – Bill English as Prime Minister. However, there were clear rumbles from some quarters about more sweeping refreshment and this was manifested in the possibility of a contest for both the top job and the Deputy’s job. However, electing Paula Bennett was a good move – giving the top two a mix of genders and very much a mix of backgrounds. It will be interesting to see how they operate as a team – if it turns out to be two strong personalities wanting to move in different directions there could be fireworks.
The next step is the design of the front bench and the choice of Ministers for Cabinet. From what English has said there will be some refreshment but I reckon we could expect to see the “old gang” in most of the powerful portfolios.
True to style the few public pronouncements that Bill English has made have been conservative in tone, the bloke has clearly not had a charisma injection, and by and large he has kept policy options open. In terms of policy there are two “biggies” to watch for:
- One area where English may move is on National Superannuation because it fits well with his overall approach to Finance and economic policy. I think the interesting question is whether there will be a cautious approach which might have to be updated during the next term of government ( for example progressively raise the age of entitlement to about 67 and do nothing else) or whether a bolder approach may be taken which looks ahead several elections and maybe includes a bolder target like age 70.
I will be interesting to follow the polls for the next several months. I would expect the first polls will probably not appear until the full shape of the government is revealed, and I think the early polls will give English the benefit of any doubt – although National might go down a bit reflecting the loss of Key, English will probably get a tick for stability and continuity. The interesting polls will be 3 months out and further, by which time the policy approach should be clearer as should be the support coming from caucus.
My gut feeling is that even if the polls start going down, the fall would have to be catastrophic to precipitate a change of leadership. I suspect the instinct would be to stick with English until the election and then maybe look at really sweeping change after the election.
Watch this space I guess.
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This is another of Bas Walker’s posts on GrownUps. Please look out for his articles, containing his Beachside Ponderings.