We Are Not In Kansas Any More
This change was happening long before the recent economic downturn – although some still believe that world economic crisis is to blame for lack of jobs. The change has certainly been accelerated by economics but the seeds of change were there in the early 90’s. The ageing population bulge is also starting to impact the situation significantly, but this alone is not the culprit.
I recently started re reading Charles Handy’s book ‘The Empty Raincoat’ written in 1994. It was interesting then – it is unnervingly real now. We are not in Kansas any more – but what are we doing about it? Handy is, in my view, a man of enormous prescience and wisdom. In his book, he outlines today’s work challenge; the concept of a permanent job and a guaranteed retirement has gone. In its place we have a level of impermanence that most people find disturbing. The previous ability to sensibly plan a secure future seems to have been overtaken by an need to adapt and change horses regularly.
The New Employment Equation
Two things have created the new equation for large employers: Firstly, new technology has replaced many jobs. For example, when I started working there was a typing pool and a filing department in every organisation; now the computer has replaced both. Certainly new jobs in IT have been created, but after a short hiatus of IT support jobs, most have been replaced by the advancement of the technology itself. Five years ago I would have needed an expert to create a web site – today I can create my own.
The second influence has been the rapid development of Global competition. Profitability in a Global world involves speed of product development and getting products and services to market with lower costs. Competition has never been tougher; the need for cost cutting has never been greater.
These two pressures on performance have led to a new work equation. Handy quotes the chairman of a Pharmaceutical company predicting that in 5 years time (this was in 1994) he would need ½ x 2 x 3 = P to make an acceptable profit. Half as many people, paid twice as much to do three times as much work = productivity. My observation is that large organisations have been applying this equation for the past few years.
What Are The Implications For Work?
It’s easy to become negative about this state of affairs but there are benefits and these huge work shifts have happened many times in history. Like an earthquake, we will settle again but in a different place. First, it is important to accept the realities of the new paradigm:
- New realities for the over 50’s
- Full time jobs in large organisations will be fewer, more personally demanding and only the top people in their field need apply.
- Continuing in a job beyond the age of 50 will become increasingly difficult unless organisations change their approach
- It is also unlikely that employees over 50 will be able or want to continue the pace in full time employment
- The number of people over 50 will increase as a proportion of the population over the next 20 years and many will not have a private pension or other income
- Large numbers of people over 50 will be looking for ways to maintain their incomes and even those with secure incomes will want new ways to contribute by doing worthwhile Work
- At age 50, people have a potential life expectancy of 80+ and some will reach 100. For younger generations, even at birth, this life expectancy increases – over half of those born after the year 2000 will live to be over 100.
The Good News
By developing what Handy calls a portfolio lifestyle, many of us will be able to have a combination of incomes and work that will create a more balanced and interesting life with less concern about security. This will allow organisations to employ elders in part time roles where they contribute their wisdom, such as mentoring. More people will be available to volunteer their services for society if we can organise those roles with respect. We have our wisdom to offer rather than speed of response or willingness to sacrifice long hours. Finally, for those worried about income, there is also safety in variety; after all as Hardy comments ‘It sometimes seems as if there is nothing so insecure as a secure job’.